Prediction technique for the auroral oval boundaries

The forecast provides the estimates of geomagnetic latitudes of poleward and equatorward boundaries of the auroral oval,
and equatorward boundary of the diffusive aurora for the next hour taking into account the propagation time from L1 to Earth.
The estimates of boundaries are obtained on the basis of Strakov model (1994) which uses the geomagnetic auroral electrojet AL index
as input parameter. The estimation of AL index is made on the basis of real-time hourly averaged solar wind and interplanetary magnetic
field data, provided by ACE spacecraft (Petrukovich, 2006). The forecast is currently updated every hour.
 
Ref:
Starkov, G.V (2006), Mathematical model of the auroral boundaries, Geomagnetism and Aeronomy, 34 (3), 331–336.
A.A. Petrukovich (2006), Solar wind density effect on the night-side geomagnetic activity (AL index),
Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 68, 1843–1849.